An ambiguous picture is emerging in the Russian retail market. On one hand, we are witnessing a sharp cooling of interest from international companies. The statistics for January-September are relentless: the number of new brands deciding to launch in Russia has decreased by 37.5% compared to last year. The forecast for the rest of the year is even more pessimistic—the total number of newcomers could be halved, reaching a mark of just 51 brands.
This is not just about statistics, but about tectonic shifts. Of these 51 expected brands, only 21 will be foreign. This indicates that the era of active globalization in Russian retail has come to an end. International players are weighing not only economic benefits but also reputational and logistical risks, which today significantly outweigh the potential gains.
On the other hand, domestic entrepreneurs are actively trying to fill this vacuum. The projected 30 new Russian brands are not just a number, but a direct consequence of necessity-driven import substitution. A window of opportunity has opened for local brands, but the path is thorny. The most telling segment is apparel and footwear, which accounts for almost half of all new openings. But it is precisely here that we see the other side of the coin—an extremely high turnover rate. The large number of closures suggests that the market is in a state of turbulence. New players lack the experience, marketing budgets, and brand recognition to compete for consumers accustomed to global names. Thus, the market is not just changing; it is undergoing a painful transformation, the outcome of which is not yet clear.