September statistics on container traffic through the ports of Russia’s Far East have proven to be extremely telling, revealing two divergent trends in the Russian economy. On the one hand, a sharp collapse was recorded in indicators related to the country’s own foreign trade. Imports decreased by 29.4% year-on-year, exports fell by 28.7%, and the total container turnover dropped by 23.7%.
This collapse cannot be attributed to a single factor. Most likely, we are witnessing the effect of a “perfect storm”: a weakening of domestic consumer demand, the volatility of the ruble exchange rate, which has made imports more expensive, and possibly the high base effect from last year when importers were actively building up their inventories. The decline in exports, in turn, may be linked to both a global economic slowdown and sanction-related restrictions.
Against this backdrop, the 61.5% growth in transit traffic looks not just like a ray of hope, but like evidence of a strategic shift. As traditional sea routes become more expensive and riskier, Russia is actively strengthening its position as a transit bridge between Asia and Europe. This growth is a direct consequence of the reorientation of global supply chains and the successful operation of transport corridors.
Thus, the September statistics are not just a report on falling volumes, but an indicator of deep structural changes. Russia is losing volume in classic imports and exports but is finding a new niche by monetizing its geographical location. The question is whether the profits from transit can, in the long run, compensate for the losses from the contraction of its own trade.